The Bureau of Meteorology says there’s roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average three months ahead, with La Niña conditions now ended and neutral conditions prevailing. Even average rainfall would be considered a bonus, with 2018 rainfall readings well short of long term averages. 

The 157mm Tenterfield received up to the end of March falls well short of the 289mm average, and that follows a drier-than-expected growing season last year when fodder crop yields were also down.

Hay supply very tight

Sunnyside hay supplier and contractor Simon McConville, trading as Black Stump Pastoral Company, said his current forage sorghum crop is struggling and lucerne this year was practically a non-event. Usually he get three-to-four cuts off it, but this year there was only one decent one.

“All summer cropping has been down half or more,” he said.

“This year has been something else.”

He said if you take away storms there’s been little other rain. Storms at the end of February are carrying his forage sorghum crop through to harvest, but for the past few weeks it’s been a matter of salvaging what crop he can.

As a contractor he said he’s not pushing anyone to sow a winter crop on the hope of rain.

“There’ll be no winter crops this year if it doesn’t rain soon. Some have already pulled the pin, others are waiting to see if it rains. It’s been a harsh season.”

He said the couple of millimetres of rain predicted for the end of this week won’t have much impact even if they do eventuate.

“It’s so dry now that we need two inches this week and two inches next week. Ten mil on dry soil doesn’t go far.

“If it doesn’t rain soon, the show’s over.”

In the past fortnight he’s noted some panic buying of hay. He doesn’t usually receive so many phone calls this early in the season, getting requests from buyers he doesn’t generally hear from until June.

“The demand is already there,” he said.

Around half of his remaining stock of forage sorghum is already committed. He fears there will be a lack of supply of hay with the recent sale of a number of hay-producing properties at Riverton committing those properties to different crops. Hay and silage from the Deepwater and Bolivia will be in short supply as well with those areas also suffering a lack of moisture.

“Everywhere this side of Texas has been dry,” he said.

“I don’t know where the hay will come from, but there’ll be extra freight cost.”

Sowing window remains open while it’s warm

Dave King of seed and fertiliser supplier Tenterfield Produce said the dry weather is the topic of conversation on everyone’s lips and seed sales have steadied up in the past few weeks as farmers wait for rain.

He doesn’t put too much stake on the bureau’s weather predictions.

“They’ve been wrong before,” he said.

He said the planting window for winter crops remains open while the weather’s warm. Once it does rain, however, it oftens turns cold.

Should we receive rain and the temperature remains warm, there’s still some prospect of sowing a successful winter crop while the ground temperature remains above 16 degrees.

Mr King said some clients planted on mid-March rain but those crops are now in desperate need of a drink. Water is an issue in general with many farm dam levels low.

“Hay’s going to be hard to get,” he said.

“There’s some silage around, but good lucerne hay is in short supply. It’s going to be a long winter.”

Numbers up at saleyards

Matt Duff of Harold Curry Livestock Agents said numbers were definitely up at the Tenterfield cattle sale on Monday, with all selling centres in the vicinity also experiencing huge yardings in the past week or two as farmers offload stock.

He said many farmers are hanging on until the weaner sale in May, and will then be concentrating on getting just their core breeders and replacement stock through the winter.